Cegedim Customer Information experts prepared a market forecast to determine the evolution of the pharmaceutical market in Romania between 2023 and 2026. This forecast is an estimation of drugs that will be dispensed to patients, from both retail and hospital pharmacies (sell-out), for the mentioned period. Here is a summary of the main takeaways from this report.
The evolution of the pharmaceutical market in Romania: summary of the market forecast 2023 – 2026
In this study, we have selected 5 topics for which we share our knowledge and thoughts:
- Forecast methodology
- Short-term market trends in DOT (days of treatment), units, and values (RON, Eur and US$)
- Therapeutic outlook at the ATC1 level
- Medium-term forecast 2023-2026
- Recommendations
Although the cost-volume and cost-volume-result programs are a major driver of the overall market growth, they are heavily influenced by the policies of the health authorities and therefore they are atypical for the rest of the market’s organic evolution. In consequence, their evolution cannot be forecasted by statistical models and therefore they are not included in this market forecast. Moreover, only a few pharma companies are competing in these specific segments while the vast majority are playing in the “regular” market. We considered that an objective growth target for such a majority should not include these segments, since they could significantly distort the market.
So far, the forecast for OTC – non-prescription bound medicines and nutritional supplements didn’t consider the online channel development which is expected to grow significantly in mid and long term, due to diversity of the offer, the convenience of online purchase, significant price reductions and significant resources directed to the promotion of this channel by pharmaceutical manufacturers.
For 2024, we recommended considering a market growth percentage of about 7.4% in DOTs, 4.9% in units, and 14.8% in RON, as the market volatility remains high in the actual economic environment.
Sales are reported at the pharmacy purchase price level (PPP). Growth rates in hard currencies can be further adjusted, based on information sources and each company’s business practice.
Between 2024 and 2026, the total pharmaceutical market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.2% in local currency terms, based on a volume CAGR of 3.5% and a DOT CAGR of 5.7%.
Main drivers of the Romanian pharma market evolution
Key positive forecast drivers:
- Disrupted or delayed diagnoses as lasting, post-pandemic effects: disruption of typical health care-seeking behaviors has led to an increase in undiagnosed cases or more severe diseases when diagnosed, especially cancer, obesity, type 1 and 2 diabetes, heart disease etc.
- Changes in the market structure at the product mix level: the moderate increase in volume and DOT was accompanied by a significant increase in the average price per unit, driven largely by a change in product mix, as cheaper products were gradually withdrawn from the market and were replaced by more expensive substitutes
- Broader reimbursement coverage: the financing for acute and chronic, often lower-cost generic treatments, as well as for the novel, high-cost specialty treatments (National Health Programs) increased in 2022 vs 2021 by 6.5% and is expected to increase in 2024
- Retail OTC&FS will continue its “over-push” strategy benefiting from:
- A favorable regulatory framework and an increasing self-medication and self-care trend
- An increase in OTC&FS prices due to high inflation and rising energy costs as a result of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict
- The consolidation of online sales channel favored by restricted mobility during the pandemic, price policy, and convenience in the post-pandemic period
- Enhanced advertising resources directed into this channel by pharma manufacturers and retailers (online and offline)
- The expansion of the private health market as the economy and the disposable income of some population segments have grown in the past few years, as an alternative to the dysfunctionalities of the public system
Key negative forecast drivers:
- Potential impact of economic factors on healthcare budgeting – the current economic crisis could lead the healthcare authorities to adopt stricter cost containment measures on drugs in the years to come. It is expected that the pricing and value of medicines will be under increased scrutiny during this period
- Many patients have remained less engaged with healthcare, likely resulting in continuing numbers of disrupted or delayed diagnoses and treatments. For exemple, the hospital market is still affected as the no. of patients in 2023 (3.62 mn) is below the 2019 level (4.15 mn)
- Parallel export of drugs is still attractive in Romania due to the lowest prices within the reference EU countries basket
- Population decline due to emigration and a negative natural population growth rate
- Globally, the cost of living crisis has significant implications for healthcare, as household budgets are tightened
- Medium term: still turbulence in the regional market – with the ongoing effect of conflict between Russia and Ukraine, points to uncertainty in future and market players caution in making medium and long-term development commitments
For more information on the evolution of the pharmaceutical market in Romania between 2023 and 2026, we invite you to access an excerpt of our study.
